Spring 2009

SF Bay Area & Silicon Valley Prediction Markets Cluster Prediction Markets Summit Leading Collective Intelligence Networks Friday, 23 January  2009 8:00am - 4:00pm Check-in  No on-site registration. Your transaction email response is your event registration receipt. Attractive group, non-profit and academic discounts are available. There are no other discounts, press passes or refunds. Unused tuition is 100% transferable and may be used at future events or by another person. PM Summit Reception 4:30-5:30PM in vino veritas Sponsored By: Cosentino Winery<4:30-5:30PM in vino veritas Sponsored By: Cosentino Winery For Participants and Speakers only. Sponsors Research Affiliates   "I believe that the complexity of the problems facing mankind is growing faster than our ability to solve them. Finding ways to augment our intellect is both a necessary and a desirable goal. The mouse was just a tiny piece of a much larger project, aimed at augmenting human intellect." Douglas C. Engelbart “The computer is incredibly fast, accurate, and stupid. Man is unbelievably slow, inaccurate, and brilliant. The marriage of the two is a force beyond calculation." — Leo Cherne

SF Bay Area & Silicon Valley Historic Fort Mason Center Firehouse Map Fort Mason Center Directions Note: There is no street address. The entrance to Fort Mason Center is at the intersection of Marina Boulevard and Buchanan Street, in the Marina District.     and Join Prediction Markets Cluster LinkedIn Group Subscribe to Prediction Markets Email:

Prediction Markets Summit
Leading Collective Intelligence Networks

Friday, 23 January  2009
8:00am - 4:00pm

Check-in
Secure, online registration ($399.00) includes meals, refreshments, materials and Wi-Fi.

Time	Interaction	Speaker
8:00 - 8:15	Continental Breakfast and Registration	Staff
8:15 - 8:30	Introduction, Agenda, Logistics Prediction Markets Summit Leading Collective Intelligence Networks
8:30 - 9:00	Collective Intelligence Networks Long Bets: Betting with real money over the long haul	Alexander Rose -and- William Pietri -and- William Pietri
9:00 - 9:30	Collective Intelligence Networks Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for  Prediction Markets	Chris Hibbert
9:30 - 10:00 Prediction Markets Enterprise Case Study: Driving Changes in Employee Morale, Governance and Strategy		Fortune Elkins
10:00 - 10:30337" height="36" align="center" bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#CCFFCC"> All
10:30 - 11:00	Collective Intelligence Networks Enterprise Prediction Markets: Opportunities and Challenges	Leslie Fine, Ph.D. VP of Market Design
11:00 - 11:30	Collective Intelligence Networks Prediction Markets: Collective Intelligence at Work	Norris Clark VP - North America
11:30 - 12:00	Prediction Market Case Study Launching a CFTC Regulated Prediction Market in the Current Environment:  A Case Study of the Cantor Exchange	Richard Jaycobs
12:00 - 12:45	Keynote Presentation Prediction Markets: Combinatorial Prediction Markets	Robin Hanson Professor, Economist, Polymath
12:45 -2:00	Prediction Markets Cluster Bayside Cookout Rain or Shine	All
2:00 - 2:30	Research and Practice Collective-Intelligence Is Not Just About People: Combining Artificial Intelligence Agents In Prediction Markets	Edward Mokurai Cherlin Founder Earth Treasury
2:30 - 3:00	Prediction Market Practice Improving Policy & Expenditure in Government	Scott Bird Legal Advisor
3:00 - 3:30	Afternoon Break & Refreshments	All
3:30 - 4:00	Research and Practice Prediction Markets Technology Panel	Facilitator Chris Hibbert Bo Cowgill Norris Clark Robin Hanson Richard Jaycobs Leslie Fine, Ph.D.
4:00	PM Summit 2009 Adjournment
4:30 - 5:30	PM Summit Reception in vino veritas Sponsored By: Cosentino Winery The Long Now Foundation

---

Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets ?

Also known as information markets (PM), decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
 
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

 What are Collective Intelligence Networks?

Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies.

Collective intelligence Networks are growing rapidly. These networks help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge. Through a ceaseless flurry of self-organizing value exchanges, wikis, blogs and information markets, these stunning network capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence with breathtaking speed, accuracy and continuity.

Collective intelligence networks continuously amass, codify, refine and advance knowledge. Open, value-based networks enable far better decision making about product launches, features, policies and myriad other critical questions facing organizations, businesses, the environment and civil society.