Summer 2009

New York City & Silicon Alley Prediction Markets Cluster Prediction Markets Summit Leading Collective Intelligence Networks Friday 24 April  2009 8:00am - 4:00pm Check-in  Secure, online Check-in required and includes meals, refreshments, materials and Wi-Fi. Your transaction email response is your event registration receipt. Attractive group, non-profit and academic discounts are available. There are no other discounts, press passes or refunds. Unused tuition is 100% transferable and may be used at future events or by another person. No on-site registration. Questions?  Please Contact Sarah V. Jones, sarah.jones@pmclusters.com, Tel: 978-468-0267, Fax: 206-984-2429.   PM Summit Reception in vino veritas Thursday 23 April 2009 5:00-6:00PM Sponsored By: Cosentino Winery For Participants, Guest and Speakers only. RSVP Rqr'd. Press Sponsors Gartner covers prediction markets in their 2008 Hype Cycle for Social Software.

New York City & Silicon Alley Prediction Markets Cluster New York City Seminar & Conference Center NYC Seminar and Conference Center 71 West 23rd Street New York, NY 10010 Toll Free: 800-326-5494 NYC: 646-336-4455  •  Fax: 646-514-6783 Hotels and Parking Subway Directions   and Join Prediction Markets Cluster LinkedIn Group Subscribe to Prediction Markets Email:

Prediction Markets Summit
Leading Collective Intelligence Networks

Friday, 24 April  2009
8:00am - 4:00pm

Check-in
Secure, online Check-in required and includes meals, refreshments, materials and Wi-Fi. Questions? 
Please Contact Sarah V. Jones, sarah.jones@pmclusters.com, Tel: 978-468-0267, Fax: 206-984-2429

Time	Interaction	Speaker
8:00 - 8:15	Continental Breakfast and Registration	Staff
8:15 - 8:30	Introduction, Agenda, Logistics Prediction Markets Summit Leading Collective Intelligence Networks	All
8:30 - 9:15	Prediction Markets Iowa Electronic Markets: Real-money futures markets	George Neumann George Daly Research Professor of Economics
9:15 - 10:00	Collective Intelligence Networks  Enterprise Prediction Markets: Leading Organizational Collective Intelligence	Maurice Balick Co-founder, VP & CTO
10:00 - 10:30	Morning Break	All
10:30 - 11:30	Prediction Market Research Prediction Markets: Combinatorial Prediction Markets	Robin Hanson Professor, Economist, Polymath
11:30 - 12:30	Keynote Presentation Harnessing Crowds:   Mapping the Genome of Collective Intelligence	Thomas W. Malone Professor of Management MIT Sloan School of Management
12:30 -1:30	Prediction Markets Luncheon	All
1:30 - 2:00	Prediction Markets Wisdom is Relative:   Future of PMs	Daniel Reeves Yahoo Research Scientist
2:00 - 2:30	Enterprise Prediction Markets Collective Intelligence Solutions:   Developing Enterprise PMs	Brad Wilson VP Services
2:30 - 3:00	Collective Intelligence Networks Enterprise Prediction Markets: Designing Easy, Engaging and Expressive Prediction Markets	Leslie Fine, Ph.D. Chief Scientist
3:00 - 3:30	Afternoon Break & Refreshments	All
3:30 - 4:00	Research and Practice Prediction Markets Technology Panel	Facilitator
4:00	PM Summit 2009 East Adjournment

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Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets ?

Also known as information markets (PM), decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
 
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

 What are Collective Intelligence Networks?

Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies.

Collective intelligence Networks are growing rapidly. These networks help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge. Through a ceaseless flurry of self-organizing value exchanges, wikis, blogs and information markets, these stunning network capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence with breathtaking speed, accuracy and continuity.

Collective intelligence networks continuously amass, codify, refine and advance knowledge. Open, value-based networks enable far better decision making about product launches, features, policies and myriad other critical questions facing organizations, businesses, the environment and civil society.