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Prediction Markets
Conference
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Secure Registration
(online registration in advance required.) |
Thurs 18 January 2007
8:45am - 4:00pm
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Agenda
(In Progress) |
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AEI-Brookings
Joint Center Prediction Markets Conference Abstract |
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The
AEI-Brookings Joint Center Prediction Markets Conference
will examine Prediction and Information Markets -- A New Way
to Make Decisions. See the
Prediction Markets industry consortium joint press release.
New ways to share, trade and aggregate information using
Internet-based information markets are exploding! These markets
help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to
acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge.
These capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence
with stunning speed and accuracy.
Through a ceaseless flurry of self-correcting exchanges, wikis
and markets, covering everything from politics and business
plans to public policy and financial valuations, online markets
amass —and refine— knowledge and collective intelligence.
Prediction markets aggregate information in a way that allows
organizations, ranging from computer manufacturers to Hollywood
studios to universities and government agencies, to make far
better decisions about product launches, features, public policy
and myriad other critical questions.
Learn how people can assimilate aggregated information without
succumbing to the dangers of the herd mentality. Explore how and
why the new online markets and aggregation techniques are so
astoundingly effective! Put prediction and information markets
to work for you and your organizations today.
Join the
world’s top authorities and market innovators for this low-cost,
high-value
prediction markets conference. The format is open and
authentic conversation. See
Testimonials.
Secure
online registration is open and required. This event is filling
fast. All are welcome. Use
Secure Registration
to join your community event. If you can't participate with us
in Washington, DC please join the conversation on Google Groups
below.
Prediction Markets Community Group
Discussion
"This is a great group, very informative,
lots to read/learn."
- Vincent Rais,
Me 2.0
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Subscribe to the Prediction
Markets Discussion |
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Some Media Coverage
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by Bill Saporito, October 16, 2005 |
by Olga Kharif, July 26, 2005 |
by Robert Hof, June 10, 2005 |
11/18/2004 |
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Australian Financial Review
by James Hall, August 2004 |
by James M. Pethokoukis, 08/22/2004 |
by Barbara Kiviat, 07/06/2004 |
by James Surowiecki, 06/01/2004 |
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by Ajit Kambil, 12/01/2003 |
by Hal Varian, 05/08/2003 |
by James Surowiecki, 03/17/2003 |
by Ajit Kambil, July 2002 |
Advantages and Benefits
What are
Prediction Markets?
Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and
virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets
created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose
final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter).
The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the
probability of the event or the expected outcome.
Prediction markets were
championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds.
Prediction markets are useful decision support tools for corporations.
(Wikipedia:
Prediction Markets)
Who uses
Prediction Markets?
The list of
companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is
impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top,
knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements in decision
making, forecasting and KM with these
potent collective intelligence technologies, markets and methods.
"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep into
some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly
and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures
contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior.
The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful
knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize
corporate forecasting and decision making," says
Robin Hanson, an economist at George
Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets.
"Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional
expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down
the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top
management." (Time Magazine)
More
resources:
http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758
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