Chicago

University of Chicago
Booth School of Business
Gleacher Executive Center

Friday 6 November 2009
8:00am - 5:00pm

Time	Interaction	Speaker
8:00 - 8:15	Continental Breakfast and Registration	Staff
8:15 - 8:30	Introduction, Agenda, Logistics Collective Intelligence Summit Leading Prediction Markets
8:30 - 9:15	Prediction Markets Iowa Electronic Health Markets: Real-money futures markets	George Neumann George Daly Research Professor of Economics
9:15 - 10:00	Enterprise Prediction Markets Enterprise Collective Intelligence: Leading Effective Enterprise PMs	Linda Rebrovick CEO
10:00 - 10:30	Enterprise Innovation Markets Socialized Innovation: Tapping Motorola’s Collective Intelligence	Rami Levy Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff Technical Lead and Manager Motorola's Open Source Technologies Team
10:30 - 11:15	Morning Break	All
11:15 - 12:00	Prediction Market Research Prediction Markets: Combinatorial Prediction Markets	Robin Hanson Professor, Economist, Polymath Chief Scientist
12:00 -1:00	Prediction Markets Leaders Luncheon Gleacher Dining Room Sponsored by InTrade The Prediction Market
1:00 - 1:45	Collective Intelligence Networks Team Intelligence to Business Intelligence: Prediction Markets Delivering Key Forecasts	Matt Fogarty Founder & CEO
1:45 - 2:30	Innovation Management Enterprise 2.0 Enabling Collaborative Innovation Gen Y employees and customers are demanding more transparency and participation in business operations. At the same time, organizations are looking for new ways of accelerating innovation. These drivers are pushing many companies towards a bottom-up approach to innovation management that leverages enterprise communities throughout the innovation lifecycle. Such “purpose-built” communities need continual monitoring and proactive community management to ensure alignment with business goals and sustainable participation levels. This session outlines metrics that facilitate community management by providing insights into community health and individual contributions. The metrics also provide a foundation for idea evaluation, ranking, selection, and user incentive systems. The session further discusses approaches to improving critical community parameters, possible implementations, and lessons learnt.	Padmanabh Dabke, PhD Co-Founder & CTO YouTube Interview
2:30 - 3:00	Afternoon Break & Refreshments	All
3:00 - 4:00	Research and Practice Collective Intelligence and Prediction Markets Adoption Panel	Robin Hanson Rami Levy George Neumann Padmanabh Dabke
4:00	Fall 2009 Adjournment

Since 1995, Aurora WDC has helped its global clientele identify and manage competitive threats and opportunities in diverse industries, in ways they can immediately put to use. Confronting and overcoming clients' most challenging intelligence roadblocks isn't easy; it requires primary research, incisive analysis, advanced training, and expert implementation advice alongside programs combining these disciplines to help your organization meet its collective intelligence objectives.

Consensus Point, a Nashville based company, is the leading provider of enterprise prediction markets serving corporations and government. Formerly known as Foresight Technologies, Consensus Point has over 15 years of experience providing enterprise prediction markets, Consensus Point offers a comprehensive collective intelligence solution, including Software as a Service (SaaS) with on-demand or on-site licenses, consulting services, and support. The company helps customers reduce the risk of uncertainty, improve revenue through accurate forecasts of products and services, and manage projects with immediate insight into future completion dates and budgets. Prediction markets provide viable prospective business insights that compliment other useful information tools by aggregating the tacit knowledge from employees, customers, and/or partners about your most critical business initiatives.

Crowdcast provides enterprise forecasting solutions that dynamically aggregate team intelligence to deliver accurate and insightful forecasts. When will the product really ship? How much will really sell in Q4? Unbiased, accurate forecasts of such key operational and strategic metrics can be efficiently generated by tapping the wisdom of your team using Crowdcast's Team Intelligence Platform™. Crowdcast is led by experts in enterprise forecasting and prediction market design and provides accurate team forecasts for Electronic Arts, GM, Johnson & Johnson, NERA, The Monitor Group, and CFO Magazine.

Exago is pioneering the use of Information Markets as a tool to support decision making in organizations. Exago’s approach makes available a set of services allowing clients to implement the desired process and ensure it is sustainable within the organization. Exago supports customers not only with process definition but also with continuous communication activity about the process and the validation of the incentive model.

Named the #1 national university to watch in the 2009 rankings of U.S. News & World Report, George Mason University is an innovative, entrepreneurial institution with global distinction in a range of academic fields. Located in Northern Virginia near Washington, D.C., Mason provides students access to diverse cultural experiences and the most sought-after internships and employers in the country. Mason offers strong undergraduate and graduate degree programs in engineering and information technology, organizational psychology, health care and visual and performing arts.

The Iowa Electronic Health Markets is a research project at the University of Iowa exploring the use of prediction markets as a tool for disease surveillance. By combining the strengths of prediction markets with the knowledge of our trading community from around the world, our hope is that these markets will report future infectious disease activity quickly enough to be clinically useful.

Founded in 1999, Intrade is an Irish incorporated service business. Our team has almost 80 years combined experience in prediction markets. Intrade.com is considered to be the leading prediction market platform. intrade.com is a person-to-person trading "Exchange". It allows you to trade in the most innovative, transparent and exciting way on financial, sporting, current events, entertainment and many similar events. Intrade members trade directly with each other, bypassing the middle-man.

Motorola is known around the world for innovation in communications and is focused on advancing the way the world connects. From broadband communications infrastructure, enterprise mobility and public safety solutions to high-definition video and mobile devices, Motorola is leading the next wave of innovations that enable people, enterprises and governments to be more connected and more mobile. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) had sales of US $30.1 billion in 2008. For more information, please visit www.motorola.com.

The Prediction Market Clusters, founded in 2004 in Silicon Valley, are the global industry commons and open community for prediction markets and collective intelligence networks worldwide. The open, agnostic community is a focused collaboration network of vendors, academia, traders, users, developers, markets, regulators and stakeholders. The goal is to provide awareness, diffusion, adoption and pull-through for enterprise, institutional and consumer prediction markets. PM Clusters conduct popular, distributed leadership retreats for prediction markets, Wisdom of Crowds, collective intelligence networks and collaborative enterprise forecasting.

Spigit is the leading developer of social productivity software for enterprises to drive innovation and empower decision makers. Spigit's product offerings range from the intra-enterprise Innovation. Spigit(TM) to its customer-facing IdeaSpigit solutions. Spigit currently powers innovation at numerous Fortune 500 companies and has been named Best of Software Interop 2008 and is listed on the AlwaysOn Global 250 list, the power list of the top 250 private global technology companies.

Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.

One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies.

Collective intelligence Networks are growing rapidly. These networks help companies, schools, governments, and individuals to acquire, to create and lead ever-growing bodies of knowledge. Through a ceaseless flurry of self-organizing value exchanges, wikis, blogs and information markets, these stunning network capabilities achieve mastery of collective intelligence with breathtaking speed, accuracy and continuity.

Collective intelligence networks continuously amass, codify, refine and advance knowledge. Open, value-based networks enable far better decision making about product launches, features, policies and myriad other critical questions facing organizations, businesses, the environment and civil society.

Fall 2009

Midwest Action/Research Network

Midwest Action/Research Network

Collective Intelligence Summit:
Leading Prediction Markets

Collective Intelligence Summit
Leading Prediction Markets

Fall 2009

Midwest Action/Research Network

Midwest Action/Research Network

Collective Intelligence Summit: Leading Prediction Markets

Collective Intelligence Summit Leading Prediction Markets

Collective Intelligence Summit:
Leading Prediction Markets

Collective Intelligence Summit
Leading Prediction Markets